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Orange County Housing Report
After looking like the active listing inventory had reached a peak a month ago, it added 91 homes in the past two weeks, up 1%, and now totals 7,292, its highest level since August 2016. Typically, the active listing inventory peaks in July or August, but not in 2018. While the inventory may not be growing at a rapid rate, its typically rapidly falling during this time of the year. This delayed peak is highly unusual and will result in a lot more homes on the market to start 2019 compared to recent years. The active listing inventory drops for the remainder of the year after peaking, but a peak this late in the year will not allow enough time to drop much.
Last year at this time, there were 5,215 homes on the market, 2,077 fewer. That means that there are 40% more homes available today. The year over year difference continues to grow each week. The trend of more homes on the market year over year is here to stay.
In the past two-weeks, demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 76 pending sales, a 4% drop. Demand now totals 1,974, the lowest demand reading for this time of the year since 2007. The headlines are no longer about not enough homes on the market, they are about not enough pending sales, muted demand. Higher rates and higher values have weakened affordability, impacting demand tremendously.
Last year at this time, demand was at 2,393 pending sales, 21% more than today, or 419 additional pending sales.
The expected market time, the amount of time it would take for a home that comes onto the market today to be placed into escrow down the road, increased from 105 to 110 days in the past two-weeks, a Balanced Market (between 90 and 120 days). Last year, the expected market time was at 65 days, substantially different than today.